OH NOAA!

"This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May." -NOAA

I'm hoping that 2012 will not make it a hurricane "hat trick" for BIANKA. I was on board for Hurricane Earl in Three Mile Harbor East Hampton in 2010. Last year it was and even more ferocious Hurricane Irene that made a direct hit on BIANKA's home waters while I could only watch and worry from two hundred and fifty miles away.  In both cases I prepped the boat as much as I could and hoped for the best. Happily, in both situations there was a good out come. But, I had time to do those preparations because I had been keeping a weather eye on hurricane activity thousands of miles away. It's what any prudent mariner would do as we approach peak hurricane season.  

AND SUCKIER!

Not  good to to wake up to this:

"DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..."

Looks like a direct hit right over the boat. One final visit today to take the sail down add anti-chaffing gear. Just hope it won't be the final visit. 

AND IT GET'S SUCKIER!

This latest track shows Irene moving a little toward the west putting most of the Isle of Long and my location on the nastier side of the storm. Spent this morning adding an additional line to the mooring. I'll be back on board tomorrow to finish up. I took some tools off the boat and some electronics.  I'm also facing the reality there is a chance I may lose the boat with this storm. When I rode out Hurricane Earl last year at anchor I was more confident in the situation. I had plan A, B, C & D ready. But, back on the mooring I only have one shot with plan A. Even if that works there are hundreds of other boats in the harbor whose owners may have no plan at all.  Which could make all my plans moot if they drag into the BIANKA. I am optimistic but, also resigned that nature also has it's plan A.

WELL, THIS KIND OF SUCKS!

This is one of those times when I hope the NOAA people get it wrong. Expecting tropical storm conditions on the Isle of Long for the weekend. I guess the good news is they are not calling for Hurricane conditions. At least not yet.

HURRICANE SEASON 2011

BIANKA is still not in the water though I am hoping to fix that by the weekend. Part of the reason was my girlfriend needed a vacation so Capt. Mike spent seven days swimming and snorkeling in the Florida Keys delaying BIANKA's launch.  Not that it was hardship to do so.  But, what struck me was how warm the water was. In some locations the water temperature was 88 degrees Fahrenheit. That's pretty warm for spring and bad news now that we have started Hurricane season. The National Hurricane center has this prediction for this year:

"Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

•12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
•6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
•3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)


Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes."

Having been on board last year and rode out a brush with Hurricane Earl successfully I am not eager to repeat the experience. I will certainly  be keeping a weather eye to make sure I am not surprised if one should one be making it's way up the coast.